SEC performance, through the years

permalink for the post: sizing up the SEC

This grew out of my own morbid curiosity and the chestbumping going on in the South with the “SEC Speed” and things of this nature. I’m interested in how the SEC has performed comparatively speaking and through the past 15 years of college football. Has there always been an comparative advantage afforded to SEC member school through time? Is the prominence of the SEC entirely a recent thing? If so, how recent? This becomes the topic for this index.

A note on measurements can be found below the table though a point will be made here regarding choice of conferences for matchup comparisons. I use the Big 12 because it has remained unchanged since 1996 and offers multiple observations in a given season. I use the Big 10 because, substantively, much of the analysis of SEC greatness has seemingly necessarily required derision of the Big 10. Moreover, both conferences send representatives to compete against one another in a variety of bowl season matchups, offering numerous points for observation. I do not list data for the Pac 10 since, up until the late 90s with some Tennessee-UCLA matchups, the Pac 10 and SEC rarely see each other. I do not gather data for the Big East and ACC since I argue doing so would be problematic for two conferences that have seen as much de/realignment whereas the Big 10 and Big 12 are rather static.

If there’s an error in measurement, do let us know and we’ll correct it. Just Say No to Measurement Error (TM).

Year ranknonconf1 rankofconf2 avgSOS3 vsbig12 vsbig10 bowlWL natnlchamp
1992 4-34 1 20.25   2-05 5-1 Alabama
1993 3-56 1 43.08   0-27 2-2  
1994 2-3-18 29 34.25   1-110 3-2  
1995 2-511 212 27.08   2-113 2-4  
1996 4-214 1 27.91 1-015 3-016 5-0 Florida
1997 7-117 1 9.5 1-118 3-019 4-1  
1998 2-820 421 25 1-222 1-223 4-4 Tennessee
1999 3-524 225 24.67 2-026 2-227 4-4  
2000 1-628 429 34.92 1-030 2-131 4-5  
2001 6-532 233 22.75 1-134 3-135 5-3  
2002 3-936 437 28 1-338 2-239 3-4  
2003 5-740 541 31.83 4-242 3-143 5-2 LSU
2004 3-544 545 43.42 1-146 2-247 3-3  
2005 3-548 549 47.42 1-150 1-251 3-3  
2006 4-752 253 19.25 2-254 1-355 5-3 Florida
2007 5-556 1 17.42 3-257 2-158 7-2 LSU
  1. ranknonconf is the tally of the SEC’s record versus non conference teams that finished in the AP Top 25. The use of final rankings versus matchup rankings should be obvious for a variety of reasons and I do not feel compelled to defend it to any great length here. Simply put, consistent with the scientific method, repeated trials (i.e, games) give us better insight into how “good” a team is whereas the rankings between teams for the early season matchup are glorified uneducated guesses (think: Cal-Tennessee 2007, LSU-Kentucky 2007, et al). I use the AP Poll to the exclusion of all other polls (Harris, BCS-whatever, USA Today) because it is arguably college football’s most “elite” poll and has been operational much longer than any other poll.
  2. rankofconf is a Sorensen statistic that utilizes conference strength and strength of schedule (understood in reductionist terms as the strength of its member institutions in a given season) and ranks the output relative to the other conferences in 1-A football (including 1-A Independents, which I don’t treat here as a conference). Link provided in the footnotes.
  3. avgSOS is the mean of the strength of schedule, as measured by Soren Sorensen, of the SEC member institutions in a given season. Mean is appropriate for interval level measurements, such as strength of schedule, though median would be a necessary correction against outliers skewing the mean. No such outliers were observed here.
  4. vsbig12 is the record of the SEC member institutions against schools from the Big 12 Athletic Conference for a given season. Because the Big 12 took on its current form in 1996, I use that year as the starting point for data collection, necessarily leaving blank the years 1992-5.
  5. vsbig10 is the record of the SEC member institutions against schools from the Big 10 Athletic Conference for a given season. Analyzing the SEC against the Big 10 in this regard is useful given the guaranteed two bowl matchups between the two conferences.
  6. bowlWL is the SEC’s bowl record for a given season.
  7. natnlchamp makes a note any time an SEC school claimed a national championship in the year in question.
  1. source [↩]
  2. source [↩]
  3. source [↩]
  4. Alabama def MiamiFL [bowl], Georgia def Ohio State [bowl], Tennessee def BC [bowl], Florida State def Florida, Florida def NC State [bowl], UNC def Miss State [bowl], Wake Forest def Vanderbilt [↩]
  5. Georgia def Ohio State [bowl], Kentucky def Indiana [↩]
  6. Florida State def Florida, Florida def WVU [bowl], Tennessee def Louisville, Penn State def Tennessee [bowl], Alabama def UNC [bowl], Clemson def Kentucky [bowl], Texas A&M def LSU, Clemson def S Carolina [↩]
  7. Penn State def Tennessee [bowl], Indiana def Kentucky [↩]
  8. FSU and Florida draw, FSU def Florida [bowl rematch], Alabama def Ohio State [bowl], Tennessee def Wazzu, NC State def Miss State [bowl], Texas A&M def LSU, [↩]
  9. Big Ten = 1 [↩]
  10. Alabama def Ohio State [bowl], Indiana def Kentucky [↩]
  11. Florida def FSU, Nebraska def Florida [bowl], Tennessee def Ohio State [bowl], Penn State def Auburn [bowl], Texas A&M def LSU, Virginia def Georgia [bowl], Notre Dame def Vanderbilt [↩]
  12. Big 8 = 1 [↩]
  13. Tennessee def Ohio State [bowl], Penn State def Auburn [bowl], Kentucky def Indiana [↩]
  14. Florida State def Florida, Florida def Florida State [bowl], Tennessee def Northwestern [bowl], Alabama def Michigan [bowl], Auburn def Army [bowl], Notre Dame def Vanderbilt [↩]
  15. Georgia def Texas Tech [↩]
  16. Tennessee def Northwestern [bowl], Alabama def Michigan [bowl], Kentucky def Indiana [↩]
  17. Tennessee def UCLA, Tennessee def Southern Miss, Nebraska def Tennessee [bowl], Florida def Southern Miss, Florida def Florida State, Florida def Penn State [bowl], Georgia def Georgia Tech, Alabama def Southern Miss [↩]
  18. Tennessee def Texas Tech, Nebraska def Tennessee [↩]
  19. Florida def Penn State [bowl], Georgia def Wisconsin [bowl], Kentucky def Indiana [↩]
  20. Tennessee def Florida St [bowl], Florida St def Florida, Michigan def Arkansas [bowl], Texas def Miss State [bowl], Georgia def Virginia [bowl], Georgia Tech def Georgia, Penn State def Kentucky [bowl], Virginia Tech def Alabama [bowl], Notre Dame def LSU, Virginia def Auburn [↩]
  21. Big 12, Big 10, ACC [↩]
  22. OK State def Miss State, Texas def Miss State [bowl], Ole Miss def Texas Tech [↩]
  23. Michigan def Arkansas [bowl], Kentucky def Indiana, Penn State def Kentucky [bowl] [↩]
  24. Alabama def Southern Miss, Michigan def Alabama [bowl], Nebraska def Tennessee [bowl], Florida State def Florida, Michigan State def Florida [bowl], Georgia Tech def Georgia, Georgia def Purdue [bowl], Arkansas def Texas [bowl] [↩]
  25. Big Ten = 1 [↩]
  26. Miss State def OK State, Arkansas def Texas [bowl] [↩]
  27. Michigan def Alabama [bowl], Michigan State def Florida [bowl], Georgia def Purdue [bowl], Kentucky def Indiana [↩]
  28. Florida State def Florida, Miami FL def Florida [bowl], Michigan def Auburn [bowl], Georgia Tech def Georgia, Kansas State def Tennessee [bowl], LSU def Georgia Tech [bowl], Clemson def South Carolina [↩]
  29. Big East, Big 12, Pac 10 [↩]
  30. Miss State def Texas A&M [bowl] [↩]
  31. Michigan def Auburn [bowl], South Carolina def Ohio State [bowl], Kentucky def Indiana [↩]
  32. Florida def Florida State, Florida def Maryland [bowl], Tennessee def Syracuse, Tennessee def Michigan [bowl], LSU def Illinois [bowl], Georgia def Georgia Tech, BC def Georgia [bowl], Syracuse def Auburn, Oklahoma def Arkansas [bowl], BYU def Miss State [bowl], Louisville def Kentucky [↩]
  33. Big 12 = 1 [↩]
  34. Oklahoma def Arkansas [bowl], Alabama def Iowa State [bowl] [↩]
  35. Tennessee def Michigan [bowl], LSU def Illinois [bowl], South Carolina def Ohio State [bowl], Indiana def Kentucky [↩]
  36. Georgia def Florida St [bowl], Oklahoma def Alabama, Miami FL def Florida, Florida State def Florida, Michigan def Florida [bowl], USC def Auburn, Auburn def Penn State [bowl], Miami FL def Tennessee, Maryland def Tennessee [bowl], Virginia Tech def LSU, Texas def LSU [bowl], Arkansas def Boise State, Virginia def S Carolina [↩]
  37. Pac 10, Big 10, Big 12 [↩]
  38. Oklahoma def Alabama, Texas def LSU [bowl], Texas Tech def Ole Miss, Ole Miss def Nebraska [bowl] [↩]
  39. Michigan def Florida [bowl], Auburn def Penn State [bowl], Minnesota def Arkansas [bowl], Kentucky def Indiana [↩]
  40. LSU def Oklahoma [bowl], Georgia def Clemson, Georgia def Purdue [bowl], Miami FL def Florida, Florida State def Florida, Iowa def Florida [bowl], USC def Auburn, Tennessee def Miami FL, Clemson def Tennessee [bowl], Arkansas def Texas, Oklahoma def Alabama, Clemson def S Carolina [↩]
  41. ACC, Big 10, Big East, Big 12 [↩]
  42. LSU def Oklahoma [bowl], Texas Tech def Ole Miss, Ole Miss def OK State [bowl], Arkansas def Texas, Arkansas def Mizzou [bowl], Oklahoma def Alabama [↩]
  43. Georgia def Purdue [bowl], Iowa def Florida [bowl], Auburn def Wisconsin [bowl], Kentucky def Indiana [↩]
  44. Auburn def Virginia Tech [bowl], Georgia def Wisconsin [bowl], Iowa def LSU [bowl], Florida def Florida St, Miami FL def Florida [bowl], Texas def Arkansas, Navy def Vanderbilt, Louisville def Kentucky [↩]
  45. Pac 10, Big 12, Big 10, ACC. Technically 1-A Independents is first, and then the list as followed, but I excluded them [↩]
  46. Tennessee def Texas A&M [bowl], Texas def Arkansas [↩]
  47. Georgia def Wisconsin [bowl], Iowa def LSU [bowl], Minnesota def Alabama [bowl], Kentucky def Indiana [↩]
  48. Wisconsin def Auburn [bowl], WVU def Georgia [bowl], Alabama def Texas Tech [bowl], LSU def Miami FL [bowl], Clemson def S Carolina, Florida def Florida State, Notre Dame def Tennessee, Louisville def Kentucky [↩]
  49. Big 10, ACC, Big 12, Pac 10 [↩]
  50. Alabama def Texas Tech [bowl], Mizzou def S Carolina [bowl] [↩]
  51. Wisconsin def Auburn [bowl], Florida def Iowa [bowl], Indiana def Kentucky [↩]
  52. Florida def Ohio State [bowl], LSU def Notre Dame [bowl], USC def Arkansas, Wisconsin def Arkansas [bowl], Tennessee def Cal, Penn State def Tennessee, Georgia def Va Tech [bowl], Louisville def Kentucky, Wake Forest def Ole Miss, Michigan def Vanderbilt, WVU def Miss State [↩]
  53. Big East = 1 [↩]
  54. Auburn def Nebraska [bowl], Georgia def Colorado, OK State def Alabama [bowl], Mizzou def Ole Miss [↩]
  55. Michigan def Vanderbilt, Wisconsin def Arkansas [bowl], Penn State def Tennessee [bowl], Florida def Ohio State [bowl] [↩]
  56. LSU def Va Tech, LSU def Ohio State [bowl], Georgia def Hawaii [bowl], Michigan def Florida [bowl], Tennessee def Wisconsin [bowl], Auburn def Clemson [bowl], Missouri def Arkansas [bowl], WVU def Miss State, Clemson def S Carolina, Missouri def Ole Miss [↩]
  57. Georgia def OK State, Auburn def Kansas State, Alabama def Colorado [bowl], Mizzou def Arkansas [bowl], Mizzou def Ole Miss [↩]
  58. Tennessee def Wisconsin [bowl], LSU def Ohio State [bowl], Michigan def Florida [bowl] [↩]