Fun w/ Hypotheticals: A Title Game in the Ten Year War
The intertubes is in a tizzy about the Big Ten Conference releasing a statement that reads as follows:
The COP/C believes that the timing is right for the conference to once again conduct a thorough evaluation of options for conference structure and expansion. As a result, the commissioner was asked to provide recommendations for consideration by the COP/C over the next 12 to 18 months.
I started a post essentially ripping the idea apart at the seams shortly thereafter. Simply put, conference title games are dumb, annoying cashgrabs that make no real football sense, they had no real effect on AP/BCS rankings until recently fetishized interest in it (confined to the SEC only), the candidates being discussed are comically inadequate and, as such, the Big Ten might actually lose money. Almost 10 pages into that post, I decided to stop. It’s still just a “thorough evaluation of options” for the moment as any good business will do. If this gets to the point where another baby will be added to the family, I’ll unload on everyone involved then and there.
The prospect of a conference championship game should raise an eyebrow for fans of Big Ten football knowing that recent history of the conference has led to labels of “Big 2, Little 8″. Ohio State and Michigan dominated the conference during important stretches. Penn State’s addition in 1989, and eventual inauguration of conference play in 1993, was supposed to change that, but it did not alter things too greatly. If anything, Penn State further reinforced the “eastern” gravitational pull of the Big Ten. With that in mind, Iowa bloggers par excellence Black Heart Gold Pants noticed that the conference is already neatly set up for a divisional format, provided that a new team is added west of the Illinois-Indiana border. However, the Big Ten would just be creating the equivalent of a Big 12 North. The strength of the conference is usually the programs east of Lake Michigan. All considered, it’s essentially comestic surgery to conceal the fact that the conference just isn’t playing great football at the moment.
Of course, I think that’s why the conference has been so public in talking about adding a 12th team in the first place.
A thought occurred: what would this have looked like during the Ten Year War that started when Bo Schembechler arrived in Ann Arbor? They would have to look bad. Combine Schembechler taking the Michigan job with Woody’s 1968 season (essentially getting his groove back), the twilight of Duffy Daugherty’s good years and the end of Jack Mollenkopf’s stay at Purdue, and the conference degenerated into a two-horse race. There was a conference championship game, but it was played at the end of November in either Columbus, Ohio or Ann Arbor, Michigan. I don’t know how this looked on the Michigan side of things, but Ohio State would often drill its non-Michigan conference opponents by 30-40 points. To hash this out, I thought I’d use the west/east divide that BHGP noticed. Obviously, we can’t consider Penn State in this exercise, so the “east division” will be just Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan and Ohio State. The “west division” will include everyone else: Iowa, Nerdwestern, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota. With that in mind, here’s what the conference championship games would’ve been if we imagine that there was such a mechanism in place:
- 1969: Michigan (8-2) v. Minnesota (4-5-1)1
- 1970: Ohio State (9-0) v. Nerdwestern (6-4)2
- 1971: Michigan (10-0) v. Nerdwestern (7-4)3
- 1972: Ohio State (9-1) v. Minnesota (4-7)4
- 1973: Ohio State (9-0-1)5 v. Minnesota (7-4)6
- 1974: Ohio State (10-1) v. Wisconsin (7-4)7
- 1975: Ohio State (11-0) v. Illinois (5-6)8
- 1976: Michigan (10-1) v. Minnesota (6-5)9
- 1977: Michigan (10-1) v. Minnesota (7-4)10
- 1978: Michigan (10-1) v. Wisconsin (5-4-2)11
- 1979: Ohio State (11-0) v. Iowa (5-6)12
There may be some pitfalls with how I read into the Big Ten standings through the years. The then-10 member Big Ten typically played 8 conference games, but there was some variation. Sometimes teams would run the gauntlet, and this was typically both Iowa and the Nerds when it did occur (I think Wisconsin did this once as well). Nevertheless, I don’t intend this post to be scientific and I’m not too bothered by it. 1972 probably stood out; it was a year of stark contrast between the “west” and “east”. The top 5 teams in the Big Ten in overall record were all in the hypothetical east division and the bottom 5 were all in the west. Minnesota was 4-7 overall, but 4-4 in conference. Grim, but better than Illinois’ 3-8 (3-5), Iowa’s 3-7-1 (2-6-1) Wisconsin’s 4-7 (2-6), and Northwestern’s 2-9 (1-8). Therefore, Minnesota is your “western division” champion and goes off to play the Buckeyes in The Ro*Tel Big Ten Championship Classic Brought To You By Advance Auto Parts™. Imagine what would’ve happened if Minnesota won that game. The Buckeyes weren’t particularly explosive on offense in 1972 and they didn’t exactly rout the Gophers in the regular season. If Minnesota wins that game, the automatic BCS (doesn’t exist yet, I know) bowl bid for the Big Ten goes to a team that’s, well, bowl-ineligible13.
I know, it’s probably a dumb post, but I just started my holiday vacay and I’m incapacitated with a pretty bad flu. That’s my excuse.
- Michigan beat Minnesota 35-9 in that season. Iowa was actually 5-5 that season, but was 3-4 in conference whereas Minnesota was 4-3. [↩]
- Ohio State wedgied the Nerds 24-10 in that season. [↩]
- Michigan pantsed the Nerds 21-6 in that season. [↩]
- Ohio State beat Minnesota 27-19 in that season. [↩]
- I’m putting Ohio State here because they got the infamous vote after the tie in Ann Arbor. Michigan actually had more overall wins. [↩]
- Ohio State beat Minnesota 56-7 in that season. [↩]
- Ohio State beat Wisconsin 52-7 in that season. [↩]
- Ohio State beat Illinois 40-3 in that season. [↩]
- Michigan beat Minnesota 45-0 in that season. [↩]
- Minnesota actually beat Michigan 16-0 that season. [↩]
- Michigan beat Wisconsin 42-0 that season. [↩]
- Ohio State beat Iowa 34-7 that season. [↩]
- The prize for whoever would go to Pasadena would be the eventual national champion Trojans, who demolished the Buckeyes 42-17. [↩]
Yeah, it just doesn’t work UNLESS Notre Dame is the 12th team. Pitt is merely the best of a bunch of bad options, not a GOOD option.
If ND is really and truly ungettable, I’d rather we kicked somebody out and went to a Pac-10-style roundrobin than add Pitt.
That option, though, is pretty much unthinkable, so I say we wait out the NBC contract and full-court-press the Irish.
2 prerequisites for inclusion:
1. I am for any type of system that will have us playing the weekend of the other championships. (It’s gotta be 10 with bye’s or 12).
2. Whoever we add needs to be a known football school with a real threat to win the conference / play in the NC game. (A great stadium would be good too.)
C. Waiting on the Irish (and their TV deal) is not a good decision, let’s get this done.
I am sick and tired of this expansion idea started by the joe pa robot, and that fat chubby red cheaked man up north not santa but barry my team is becoming crappy again alverez. several points of contention.
1. everyone forgets that for the foreseen future all big ten teams end the season after thanks giving so just one week extra see how that works out first (i am not a huge fan of this because majority of students will not be on campuses) but still see how this works first
2. mizzou is an original member of the big 6-8 thru the big 12 so they are too routed in origins and quite frankly i dont want them. any other team nd pitt rutgers etc would always have a 5-3 4-4 nds case 3-5 conf record nad really isnt going to measure up to big ten conference play
3. championship games do suck half empty stadium with a game that was already played earlier with the losers fan base having an anticlamatic season see #5
4. more games = more injuries
5. fans cant afford so many out of state trips for example u chose to travel to say the colts new stadium your team wins or loses u got another roll of hundos to go see your team in florida or pasadena
6. LIKE I SAID BOOT PENN STATE OUT ON THERE ASS see how they like their recruiting without the bigten shut up joe pa robot and be like teabag and go away!!! AND play a 9 game conf sched pac ten gets major props for this nationally
7. ok #6 wont happen so keep it the way it is and if there are two teams tied and only two that did not play one another have them play first week in dec only if they tie without playing during the season that would lead to it being ahuge evet with lots of hype and would not happen every year so making that game even more special.
8. the bigten teams would wise up like the sec and play garbage non conf teams because we have our showcase national game the last week. which is garbage look up sec sched i think the sunbelt gave alabama and fla a share of there conf crown. everyone would play penn states non conf every year.
thanks again for the site vico just wondering any luck finding the old 60″s and 80″s ducks games yet and if you have to kill a few southerners to get them so be it
So, JohnBoy: Who, then? Neither Pitt nor Missouri meets your prerequisite #2 (neither does ND right now, for that matter, but I think that’ll change soon for a few reasons, not least of which is that they finally made a good hire), or ever will. Pitt is probably the “best” fit if we MUST choose a 12th school in the next year or so, but creates HUGE divisional problems. Since ND’s out of the question there’s ONLY one school that meets your criteria (and the Big 10/CIC’s) out of ALL of the ones I’ve heard bandied about, and that’s Texas.
Now I actually think that that would be pretty effing awesome, but it’s just not gonna happen.
I’m with you, matt in cleveland, on #6 – sorta. I wish they’d never been asked to join outside of a them-and-ND blockbuster deal. But if the main goal here is to raise the national profile of Big 10 football, well, then, booting Penn State is about the most foolish thing we could do right now.
I still say ND is the only school that makes sense – WAY more sense than anybody else – and I think it’s (eventually) inevitable. The bitch of it is that we’re going to have to suck up and suck up and then suck up some more to them. But I think it’ll be worth it.
In the meantime, let’s just see over the next couple years whether kicking out the last regular-season game by a week or two helps us at all.
Sangre,
I agree that going back to ten might be the answer competition wise for football….but not financially / loss of other sports smart.
ND is the best option. I don’t think they will do it though, especially if Kelly stirs up the ghosts of the past with some success. NBC will be on their knees ready for some Irish lovin’ when that TV deal comes up.
What about West Virginia? Borderline I know but they could be an option. Better than alot of the current B10 members.
Missouri has had some quality teams lately….why wouldn’t they be a threat to win the conference? They are better than 3/4 of our league right now I’d say. Geographically it fits too.
Texas would be a dream….but does that really fit geographically? Shit, I don’t freakin’ know.
Maybe we wait and see how the bye’s work out…..we need to be on TV that big weekend though, very important.
I am worried about losing to the Ducks. I can’t take it again. Somebody please talk me down.
West Virginia’s academics do not meet the Big Ten’s standards. Academics will be one of, if not the primary concern of the Big Ten.
I think people tend to forget the role academics at a potential Big (12) Ten school plays into their selection. WV (and Louisville, etc) being tier 3 schools does not help them get into the Big (12) Ten. Missouri from my understanding is borderline, with their graduate programs helping out. I have a feeling the only perfect fit is ND, which, sadly, has about a good a chance of happening as Texas coming to our conference… not that geographically that would make any sense for them, with their non-rev generating sports having to travel to the great white north from then on at quite the additional expense. Like you would tell a best friend dating someone when he could be doing better – Big (11) Ten, please, don’t settle for that hussy named Pitt (or worse… that rather skanky Rutgers – I hear she’s been around if you know what I mean).
I am opposed to conference championship games for two reasons. First, too many times, the best team gets upset costing the conference a shot at the BCS championship game. Why subject your best team to double jeopardy?
Second, one of the major beauties about college football is that every game matters and the tradition and pagentry that comes from that mindset. Admittedly, DickRod may have already done irrepairable harm to the Greatest Rivalry in Sports (GRIS); but I am vehemently opposed to anything that deminishes the GRIS.
JohnBoy: See Chris and José for why no Mountaineers. When it comes to Missouri, well, you’re right about “right now”, but I’d like to see if A. Pinkel can sustain that success for long past the Chase Daniel/Jeremy Maclin years, and B. If Missouri can sustain that success after Pinkel is inevitably hired away by somebody better.
Yeah, I saw the academics issue but I’m thinking WVU can’t be that far off huh? What is the standard? Does anybody have the hard data for acceptance to the conference? Educate me.
What about Virginia Tech? My best buddy is an alum….says they’ll never leave the ACC. Who knows.
Back to the article on the Big12 3 way tie. Texas should have been the team based on my point differenetial formula. TT lost by 40, it doesn’t even matter to whom. That leaves Texas and OU. Texas won the game. I don’t like 11 teams in the Big 10, so why would I want 12? Diminishing OSU-Michigan is the goal of those that want that extra game. Nothing more. Jealousy.
JohnBoy:
the university has to be affiliated with the AAU, and neither WVU nor VT are
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_of_American_Universities
Also they have to be in a state bordering a current B10 state, so Virginia is ruled out, unless of course the B10 changes the rules at the same time, which they do have the authority to do
Have to say, as I’ve looked more into the expansion process I’m really quite proud to be a Buckeye. As Gee often says, rankings are rankings and they don’t amount to a hill of beans (unless you’re highly ranked), but Ohio State is a Tier 1 school by US News and other such ranking systems. WV is a Tier 3, as an example of one of our “options.” The Big (11) Ten has a pretty high standard over-all. Decent sized schools, big alumni bases, lots of money coming in, well regarded, so on and so forth. Pitt from my understanding has a decent sized endowment and academics (is also a Tier 1) to make them at least an option in this regard. Again my understanding is that the Presidents would not approve a school that is not well regarded academically (especially if their grad programs didn’t pull them up a bit, at least, which is how we can say this with a straight face considering some of the schools already in our conference such as say MSU).
Compare this to some other schools…. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/otl/news/story?id=4737281
And again, proud to be a Buckeye and a part of the Big (11) Ten as I wrap up my education. I hope that we can keep those high(er) standards than the SEC et al as we look to expand. I agree that a big part of the glory and grandeur of college football is the pageantry on game days and TRADITION. Unfortunately, we just have to face the facts of the day and age that we live in. Nearly every conference has their conference championship now. I wouldn’t be surprised if after we did something of the sort, the Pac 10 wouldn’t follow suit in the years to come. I’ve seen some better formats to accommodating this in the Big (11) Ten than others, and hopefully the powers that be are smart about how they align the conference and set up a championship game. We just need to suck it up and hope for the best. And of course throw in our two cents, as is our right to do as fans (dare I say, it is our duty).
Thanks for enlightening me Nik and Jose’. I am furiously trying to see if any SEC schools would be ineligible for our conference!
El Caballo de Sangre, interesting caution about bringing in Missouri (post#9). By the same token, I’d be willing to wait quite a while before admitting Notre Dame. From 2001-2009, Pinkel was 67-45 at Mizzou. For the same period, the Notre Dame ‘Coaching Carousel’ was 61-48, so maybe we should give Kelly some time to prove what he can do at ND.
On a lighter note, I’m pretty weary of current B10 bitchin’ & whinin’ fans of UM and PSU. I don’t want to deal with ND; two schools like this are more than enough.
The whole structuring of how the divisions would exist could be different. Why not a North Division and a South Division? For example:
North:
Michigan
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Northwestern
Possibly a team like Syracuse or Notre Dame, should ND choose to ever join the Big Ten Plus One…
South:
Ohio State
Penn State
Illinois
Indiana
Purdue
Iowa
That would make it more balanced competition wise, and I think that the South would probably be more battle-tested due to OSU and PSU both being in the same division. Wisconsin is generally a strong team, and would be Michigan’s biggest competition in the North until Notre Dame could rebuild back into a powerhouse program (once again, a lot of hypotheticals). As a person who lives in the Southeast and is used to seeing the SEC Championship Game every year, it’s comforting to know that there will be one champion and not the mess that has occurred in years past in the Big Ten, such as in 1990, when there were four Big Ten champions. The formatting would be for Ohio State to play each of its divisional opponents, plus three opponents from the other division. In the SEC, unlike the Big 12, each team picks one team out of the other division to play every year; for example, Tennessee plays Alabama every year and that way “The Third Saturday in October” lives on even though it has no bearing on divisional play. This could be what Ohio State and Michigan choose to do if this format ever came to fruition.