Our Honor Defend

[Ed. Updated the post to account for Duff posting my preview for Badgers fans over at his blog: On Wisconsin.]

I’m not sure if I can make this a regular feature, but I would like to make it a regular feature.  I got contacted by Duff, of the Badgers Sports Bar.  He asked me if we could do a swap; where he introduces the Badgers to my Buckeye audience and I preview the Buckeyes for the Badgers in turn.  Since Wisconsin is one of those gray areas for me in Big Ten football, I was more than willing to oblige.

Below, I allow Duff to preview the Wisconsin Badgers that will be making its return to the Horseshoe in 2009.  Duff expertly addresses several points of interest for Buckeye fans, including what we should make of the offensive offense the Badgers unveiled on the college football landscape last year, what the Badgers must do in order to win in Ohio Stadium, and what to make of Bret Bielema and whether or not his seat is warming up.  Likewise, you can read my Buckeye preview at his main blog: On Wisconsin.

 

Big, un-athletic, slow, punishing. That’s the Badgers, right? Well… sort of. It’s not that there isn’t any truth to the stereotype, but it’s not as true as people tend to think. The Badgers’ offense brings a big offensive line and big, punishing backs that won’t dazzle anyone with their speed. But it’s not quite, to quote my friends at Our Honor Defend, “ace dive, ace dive, ace dive, end-around, ace dive…” Last year, yes. Typically? Not so much. In the four years since offensive coordinator Paul Chryst came on board, the offense has been much more dynamic than people think. He runs a pro-style offense that relies on a game managing quarterback and often employs the flexibility of the two-tight end set to spread the ball around. In Chryst’s first three seasons running the offense, the Badgers ran on first down less than 60% of the time (last year, with weak quarterback play, that was up to 80%).

What Chryst likes to do is start the game testing the defense with various looks, then come back — again and again — to what works. This season, with a stable of capable tight ends, but no natural fullbacks, expect to see a lot of single-back, two-tight end sets. From that set, he’ll use tight ends as lead blockers to the outside, motion one to lead like a fullback inside, or release one or both into coverage.

To the right is a sample of the passes Chryst has used successfully in the past. Red denotes the receiver the ball went to. The plays on the left both TEs go into routes but the second always feigns a block before releasing. The plays on the right, one TE stays in as an additional blocker, with the other going into a pattern. Also note, two examples at the bottom where the back also releases into a pass route, providing as many as 5 receivers on the play.

Of course, a big question heading into this season is who will be the Badger quarterback? If it’s Dustin Sherer, a fifth-year senior, expect Chryst to try to stick to that balanced attack featuring potential all-American tight end Garrett Graham paired with the athletic Lance Kendricks or more traditional tight end Mickey Turner, and strong wide receivers in Isaac Anderson, Nick Toon (son of former NFLer Al Toon), and speedy David Gilreath. If it’s Curt Philips, a red-shirt freshman, expect a more mobile quarterback who has trouble getting the ball to his receivers downfield, and as a result an offense that relies much more on the run. Regardless, the Badgers will still run a punishing back (John Clay, with an NFL-type body, and some Zach Brown) behind a large line.

On defense, the stereotype doesn’t fit very well. In the late 90s, Barry Alvarez began recruiting smaller faster players on the front seven. Our defensive ends rarely run much bigger than 250, our tackles are generally well shy of 300, and our linebackers tend to run around 220, including in the middle. While we don’t tend to land the highest end, fastest recruits on the corners, we consistently have one good cover corner, and do again this year (Aaron Henry).

Unfortunately, this season our defense has very little experience, with only two returning starters in the front seven, a defensive end, and a linebacker moving from the middle to the outside. So no one really knows what to expect from that group. There is a sense of excitement regarding a transfer defensive end, J.J. Watt (he may move inside in passing situations). Badger fans are anticipating a big year from him. The secondary should be pretty good, with a lot of experience and pretty solid depth on the two-deep at every position.  Jay Valai, our strong safety, is a head hunter (who knocked a Buckeye receiver [ed. Dane Sanzenbacher] out of the contest last year). Frankly, with the new faces up front, no one really knows what to expect out of the defense. I suspect the Badger D will consistently give up yards up the middle in the running game.

So, what to look for at game time? If the Badgers have been running the ball 80% of the time on first down (as they did last season), Ohio State fans should rejoice. That means Chryst can’t do what he wants to do and the offense isn’t using its weapons at tight end and receiver. A lot of two-tight end sets, with about 60% running on first down means the Chryst offense is running smoothly and difficult to predict and defend. On the other side of the ball, the big concern for the Badgers is in the running game. The game will go well for the Buckeyes if they can sustain drives through the running game. If they are forced into second and longs, the experience in the Badger secondary should put pressure on Pryor. That is, if the Badgers can contain him (Wisconsin has struggled with the option quarterback for several years now).

Finally, a word on Bielema. He is definitely on the hot seat, but unlikely so hot that he’ll get fired. The guy pulling the string, Alvarez, understands the game and seems to have the patience to deal with ebbs. With the fans it’s a different story. The firebrands, the ones who aren’t happy unless we’re unbeaten (which has happened… never), wanted him fired after year two. But now, going into year four, even the patient fans (myself included) are starting to wonder. That’s what a year like 2008 will do to you.

Last season all the pieces seemed like they were in place. We returned four starters on the offensive line, an all-American caliber tight end, returning starters at WR, the fourth-leading Badger rusher of all time in the backfield, and six of seven players up front for the defense were three-year starters. All of these players were on the squad — most started — that went 12-1 in 2006. All that experience amounted to nothing.

The offense never got off the ground with Evridge at quarterback (some think he was there mostly because of Bielema’s loyalty to him), there were mental errors (read: penalties) all over the place, including from the coaching staff (Bielema himself may have cost us the MSU game when he was flagged for a 15-yarder), and the defense consistently ran out of steam when it mattered. Close losses to Ohio State, and Michigan State were painful, but provided reason for optimism, but embarrassing losses to Michigan (the 3-9 one, not the Rose Bowl contending variety), Penn State, and Iowa, and narrow escapes over Fresno State, Minnesota, and Cal Poly (CAL POLY!!!), indicated serious coaching problems. (Fresno State and Cal Poly both probably would have won with merely competent place kicking).

So, you have a coach that inherited Alvarez’s dynasty (which, while great, wasn’t quite as impressive as some people remember it), went 12-1 in his first season with a Capital One Bowl win, but then a shaky 9-4 (loss to an equally shaky Tennessee in the Outback), and a rough 7-6 in year three, including an embarrassing bowl loss to Florida State. The impatient say that the 2006 team (12-1) was just a hold over from Alvarez’s last two teams, both of which were close to going to the Rose Bowl, but that isn’t really true. The offense in 2006 returned only two starters from the previous year, and the defense started many new faces. Still, the trend isn’t good.

As hot as Bielema’s seat may be this season, the schedule sets up nicely for him to cool it down. We don’t play Illinois or Penn State, and get Michigan State, [still rebuilding] Michigan, and Iowa at home. Outside of Ohio State, our toughest road game is either Minnesota or Northwestern (while both are likely competent teams, let’s not kid ourselves into thinking they will be juggernauts). Frankly, the Badgers won’t need to be all that good to get a New Year’s Day Bowl, which would go a long way to calming people’s nerves about Bielema.